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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-12 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Short: 20D downtrend, sell rallies toward 656 | 2026-10-13

We are short CBOT December wheat (ZWZ26), with the trade invalidated on a daily close back above 684.08 (R2). The prior session settled at 672.25 [settle 10-12], up 0.19% on the day but down 2.89% over five sessions and 6.89% over twenty, leaving price at the 14th percentile of its 661.5–736 twenty-day channel. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 10-09) fell 1.76% to 671 after printing a 661.5 low, and the current week is unfinished with only one session logged. Realized volatility is compressed at RV20 21.6% against an ATR14 of 17.29 (2.57% of price, full daily range), so a single session can erase a week of drift; the term structure is in contango with M1-M2 at -14.25 (-2.08%) and a -8.32% roll yield, a persistent carry drag on longs. Seasonality over the next twenty sessions is mildly negative (mean -0.53%, median -1%, up only 6 of 15 years). The setup favors fading strength toward S2 656.08, with a break of the 661.5 twenty-day low opening 656.08 and then 648.79 (S2 minus one ATR). A daily close above 684.08 would reclaim the 10-06/10-07 congestion and force a reassessment. No Asia print was captured for this issue, so intraday observations are labelled as of their timestamp only.