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Data as of: 2026-10-12 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Rising Open Interest with Price Decline, Pressure in 20-Day Low Zone | 2026-10-13

Directional conclusion: Bearish. Iron ore I2701 settled at 684.5 yuan on [10-12 settlement], down 3.12% over 5 days and down 6.05% over 20 days, at the 6.8th percentile of the 20-day range of 678.5–745, near the lower band; SGX FEF=F settled at 90.95 USD, down 5.11% over 20 days, at the 2.3rd percentile of the 20-day range, with international and Chinese markets weakening in tandem. Structurally, the front-month contract's notional open interest was 42.69 billion yuan, up 409 million yuan on the day, with the top 20 seats net short 40,200 lots (down 529 lots on the day), showing a pattern of rising open interest on declines and active shorting; after China's tax adjustment, the premium over FEF=F is +7.91%, making the Chinese market relatively expensive versus the international market, with the import window tending to open, adding extra pressure on the Chinese market. Technically, the pivot P is 684.17, the settlement price is only slightly above P, R1 is 687.33, S1 is 679.83, and ATR14 is 10.11 yuan. Invalidation condition: if the daily close reclaims 694.6 (pivot P plus 1 ATR) with a clear contraction in the top 20 seats' net shorts, the bearish view is invalidated; on the downside, watch support at 678.5 (20-day low), a break below which opens further downside space.