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データ基準日: 2026-10-12 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | LONG: 20D breakout, backwardated, 103.05 invalidation | 2026-10-14

We are LONG Brent (ICE Brent, BZZ26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily close below the S1 pivot 103.05. The 2026-10-12 settle of 106.65 broke above the prior 20-day high of 105.91, completing a 5D gain of +6.31% and a 20D gain of +5.6%, with price at the 95.2 percentile of its 20-day range. The term structure is backwardated (M1-M2 3.45, 3.34%), signalling prompt tightness, while product inventories sit 6.3% (gasoline) and 12.0% (distillate) below their 5-year same-week averages and the 3:2:1 crack stands at 65.94 USD/bbl. Crude stocks are only +0.2% versus the 5-year average, so the tightness is concentrated in products. In early Asian trade on 2026-10-14 (08:00) Brent last printed 106.32, down 0.31% versus settle, inside a 104.36-106.73 range. ATR14 is 4.51 (4.23% of price, full daily range) and RV20 is 34.6%, while OVX at 48.52 sits only at its 41% 1-year percentile, so optionality is not pricing a large event premium. Seasonality is a headwind (next-20-session mean -2.79%, up only 5 of 15 years), which argues for disciplined sizing rather than a change of view. Above 106.74 (R2) opens 108.79; below 103.05 the thesis is void.