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データ基準日: 2026-10-13 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | Bullish on Backwardation & Tightness | 2026-10-14

We maintain a bullish stance on WTI Crude (CL=F) with a primary invalidation at a daily close below 90.78. The call rests on three pillars: a steep prompt-term backwardation reflecting immediate physical tightness, a supply-side constraint evidenced by rising rig counts yet lagging inventory draws, and technical momentum that has broken above the 20-day pivot with Asia trading higher. While the 20-day channel remains negative, the 5-day surge of +5.25% signals a short-term reversal. The current backdrop of elevated crack margins and a supportive term structure outweighs the broader 20-day downtrend, suggesting further upside toward the 95.53 resistance before any sustained correction. Risk management requires monitoring the 90.78 support level, as a breach would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis.