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データ基準日: 2026-10-13 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

FEF=F Deep Dive | Bearish: 90.6 broke 20-day low 90.8, downside opens | 2026-10-14

Bearish on FEF=F: the 2026-10-13 settle of 90.6 broke below the prior 20-day low of 90.8, confirming a downside break of the 20-day channel floor at 90.25–97.
3. Three reasons: (1) price action is a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows — 91.75 (10-07) to 91 (10-08) to 91.25 (10-09) to 90.95 (10-12) to 90.6 (10-13) — with the settle at the 6th percentile of the 20-day range and 5D -0.77%, 20D -4.68% (settle); (2) the break occurred on a compressed ATR14 of 0.696 (0.77% of price) with RV20 at 9.5%, a low-energy grind lower rather than a capitulation flush, which typically extends; (3) the daily ladder puts pivot P at 91.05 with S1 90.85 and S2 90.75 overhead, so the market is trading beneath its pivot structure. Invalidation: a daily close back above 91.05 (pivot P) would negate the break. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 91.25, -0.38% w/w, inside a 90.8–92.2 range; the current week is unfinished and offers no weekly-close conclusion. No Asia print was available for this issue. US CPI (BJT 10-14 20:30) is the next event risk.