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データ基準日: 2026-10-13 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Long COMEX December Gold GCZ26 — Correction Within Uptrend | 2026-10-14

We are long COMEX December gold (GCZ26) against the 20-day low at 4091.2, with a stop at 4000 and upside targets at 4267.87 and 4439.
8. Gold settled at 4177.3 on 2026-10-13, down 0.32% on the day and 3.59% over 20 sessions, yet the 5-day change is only -0.23%, indicating the pullback has stalled rather than accelerated. The market sits at the 25th percentile of its 20-day channel (4091.2–4439.
8), a discounted entry within a structure that remains above the 52-week low of 3901.
3. Managed-money net length has fallen for four consecutive weeks to 110,987 contracts, but the 91st-percentile crowding reading means positioning is still heavy, so the long is sized for a crowded tape. ETF demand is the offsetting fundamental: GLD holdings rose 0.65% over the last 20 sessions to 33,893,188 oz while futures length was cut, a constructive divergence. Implied volatility at 22.48 (10th percentile) versus 17.5% realized makes optionality moderately expensive, favoring outright futures over premium-heavy structures. The invalidation is a daily close below 4091.2, the 20-day low; tonight's US CPI is the event risk.