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データ基準日: 2026-10-13 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | LONG: supply shock, tight inventories, 6.6997 floor | 2026-10-14

We are LONG copper (HG=F), with the bias invalidated by a daily close below the S1 pivot at 6.6997 (settle basis). The call rests on three pillars. First, the supply side is flashing disruption risk: unions say the Centinela strike could halve November output, and Ivanhoe's Q3 Kamoa-Kakula saleable production of 76,401 mt is trending toward the lower end of guidance, while LME warehouse stock has fallen 11,625 MT over the last 20 reports to 231,275 MT [2026-10-12] and COMEX registered stock dropped 5,700 short ton (-1.2%) to 470,200 [2026-10-09]. Second, the technicals are constructive: the settle of 6.726 [2026-10-13] sits 60.1% up the 20-day channel of 6.4215–6.9285, with 5D +1.15% and 20D +4.38% (settle), and the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05–2026-10-09) closed at 6.692, up 2.18% w/w. Third, macro transmits positively: DXY 102.2 and the 10-year at 5.22% [2026-10-13] are both softer on the day, and the copper/gold ratio at 1.61 sits at the 99.6% 1Y percentile, a pro-growth signal. Positioning is not yet crowded (netPct 20.11%, 61.66 percentile), leaving room for trend followers to add. In early Asian trade on 2026-10-14 (as of 08:00), HG=F last printed 6.7185, -0.11% versus the prior settle, holding above S1. A daily close below 6.6997 would negate the call; upside targets are R1 6.7887 then R2 6.8303.