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データ基準日: 2026-10-13 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | LONG NGZ26 — Momentum Above Pivot P, ATR-Defined Risk | 2026-10-14

We are LONG NYMEX natural gas (NGZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below the S1 pivot at 3.1047. The 2026-10-13 settle of 3.283 [settle 10-13] was up 3.66% on the session and sits at the 77th percentile of the 20-day range (2.912–3.395), with 5D +5.43% and 20D +7.64% (settle). Three reasons for the call: first, price reclaimed the R2 pivot at 3.2663 on the settle while holding above P at 3.1543, keeping the ladder constructive; second, managed-money positioning is net short at −144,537 contracts [COT 10-06] with crowding only at the 40th percentile, leaving room for short-covering rather than a crowded long; third, the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05–10-09) closed at 3.22, up 6.1% w/w, confirming the upswing. ATR14 is 0.1479 (4.51% of price, full daily range), so a break above 3.395 targets 3.543 (0.5×ATR beyond), while a daily close below 3.1047 invalidates the bullish view. RV20 at 44.3% keeps optionality inexpensive. Seasonality (next 20 sessions, 15 years) averages +6.02% with 9 of 15 up years, supportive but a small sample. No Asia print was available for this issue.