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データ基準日: 2026-10-13 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Long: Deficit Floor at 58.73, 20D Reversal Setup | 2026-10-14

We are long silver (COMEX December SI, SIZ26.CMX) with invalidation on a daily close below the 20-day low of 58.73 [settle 2026-10-13]. The market has corrected -6.78% over 20 sessions to a settle of 59.525, sitting at the 9th percentile of its 20-day channel (58.73–68.105), while the physical tape keeps tightening: COMEX registered stock is 102.76 Moz and SHFE warrants have fallen for four straight prints to 1,473,144 kg, against a reported sixth consecutive annual deficit of 46 million ounces. Positioning is not crowded — managed-money net length is 7.16% of open interest at only the 40th 3-year percentile — so the pullback is a washout, not a distribution top. Implied vol at 36.33 sits 7.1 points above 29.2% realized, making upside call spreads the preferred expression. The gold/silver ratio at 70.18 is at the 83rd 1-year percentile, leaving room for silver to outperform if US core CPI (due BJT 20:30) comes in soft. A daily close below 58.73 targets 57.55; a reclaim of pivot P 60.884 opens R1 61.374 and the 62.234 R2 level.