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データ基準日: 2026-10-13 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20D channel breakdown, sell rallies toward 470.25 | 2026-10-14

We are bearish CBOT corn (ZCZ26.CBT) with the invalidation a daily close back above 489.33 (pivot R2). The prior session settled at 482.75 [settle 10-13], down 4.97% over five sessions and 9.89% over 20 sessions (settle), leaving price at the 17th percentile of the 20-day channel 470.25–544.
5. The 10-09 session gapped from a 504.75 high to a 470.25 low and settled 479.75, a one-day range of 34.5 points — nearly three times the ATR14 of 12.34 (2.56% of price) — and the market has failed to reclaim even half of that gap in the two sessions since (483 on 10-12, 482.75 on 10-13). The term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -14.25, -2.87%, roll yield -11.46%), so longs pay a heavy carry cost while the trend is down. Realized volatility is compressed at RV20 25.9% and the 30-day Sharpe is -4.24, confirming the drawdown is trend, not noise. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is negative (median -1.56%, up only 5 of 15 years). The cross-asset tape is pro-growth (copper/gold 1.61 at the 100th 1Y percentile) and oil is rich versus gold (oil/gold 0.0225, 95th 1Y percentile), which supports feed demand but does not offset the chart damage. We sell rallies toward 486.17 (R1) with a first target at the 470.25 20-day low and a stop above 489.33.