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データ基準日: 2026-10-13 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=F) Deep Dive | Long: Crush Demand Anchors, Reversal Above Pivot | 2026-10-14

We are long CBOT November soybeans (ZSX26.CBT), with the bias invalidated by a daily close below the 20-day low of 1269.75. The call rests on three pillars. First, price is holding the lower third of its 20-day channel (1269.75–1332.25, position 22.4%) after a contained 5D decline of -1.48% and 20D decline of -2.65% (settle), with the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05–10-09) closing at 1292, up 1.08% w/w — the pullback is a retracement, not a trend break. Second, the US soybean crush margin stands at 2.7832 USD/bu (2026-10-12), up from 2.5148 twenty sessions earlier, at the 80.16% 1Y and 93.39% 3Y percentile — processors are being paid to run hard, which supports physical demand for beans. Third, realized volatility is compressed at RV20 14.6% against ATR14 of 21.96 (1.71% of price), and the front curve is in contango (M1-M2 -17, -1.3%, roll yield -7.82%), so the market is not pricing a supply shock; any demand-side surprise has room to re-rate. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is modestly supportive (mean +1.4%, median +0.88%, up 9 of 15 years). Near-term, the 2026-10-13 settle of 1283.75 sits just under pivot P 1285.58; reclaiming R1 1293.17 opens R2 1298.58, while losing S1 1280.17 exposes S2 1272.58 and the 1269.75 floor. Today's China CPI/PPI/trade prints and tomorrow's US CPI are the catalysts; a soft US CPI would likely pressure DXY (102.
2) and lift the complex.