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データ基準日: 2026-10-13 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Short: Bearish Momentum into 661.5 Support | 2026-10-14

We are short CBOT December wheat (ZWZ26), with the trade invalidated by a daily close back above 686.
5. The prior session settled at 669.25 [settle 10-13], down 0.45% on the day, with the 5-day move at -4.97% and the 20-day move at -8.13% (settle), a persistent downtrend rather than a one-day flush. Price sits at the 10th percentile of its 20-day range (661.5–736), having probed the 20-day low of 661.5 on 10-09 and held it for three sessions; realized volatility is compressed at RV20 21% against ATR14 of 17.25 (2.58% of price, full daily range), so a directional break would carry outsized impact. The curve is in contango (M1-M2 -13.75, -2%, roll yield -8.02%), a structural headwind for longs and a tailwind for shorts. Seasonality for the next 20 sessions is mildly negative (mean -0.49%, median -1%, up only 6 of 15 years). The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 10-09) fell 1.76% to 671. The current week is unfinished and yields no weekly-close conclusions. No Asia print was available for this issue. Key risk: a daily close above 686.5 (10-07 settle) negates the short and targets 706.
5.