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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-13 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Iron Ore (DCE.I) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish Breakout, Target 674 | 2026-10-14

This report maintains a bearish view on iron ore (DCE.I2701), with the core logic being that the price has effectively broken below the lower edge of the 20-day channel and shorts are actively adding positions, indicating significant short-term downside pressure. Technically, the [10-13 settlement] of 679.5 yuan/ton has pierced the 20-day low of 678.5 yuan, and the night session continued the weakness; fundamentally, port inventories are at a five-year seasonal high, and steel mill margins are under pressure, suppressing restocking appetite, leaving the supply-demand balance loose. The invalidation condition is a daily close back above 684.17 yuan (pivot point P) or the night session reclaiming the 680 yuan integer level on volume. The current risk is that China's CPI and PPI data on October 14 could exceed expectations, potentially triggering macro sentiment disruption, but the short-term trend remains dominated by the bears.