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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-13 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Rebar (SHFE.RB) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish Bias: Risk of Position-Increase Breakdown | 2026-10-14

The current directional assessment for rebar (RB2701) is bearish bias. The core driver is that the main contract is falling on rising open interest, with clear signs of active short positioning, and price has broken below the lower band of the 20-day channel, leaving technicals under pressure. On the fundamentals side, inventory pressure and weak demand are resonating, compounded by bearish macro data expectations, further weighing on prices. The invalidation conditions for this view are a daily close firmly above 3103.33 (R1) or an effective night-session breakout above 3110.