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データ基準日: 2026-10-14 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | LONG: backwardated tightness, breakout above 94.14 | 2026-10-15

We are LONG WTI crude (CLZ26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily close below the 92.19 pivot S1. The 2026-10-14 settle of 95.09 (+1.01%) extended a four-session advance from 91.49 on 10-08, a +3.9% run that has carried price to the 74th percentile of the 20-day 86.86–98.01 range and above the 93.65 pivot P. The term structure is in backwardation (M1-M2 0.97, 1.04%, roll yield 12.49%), which is a prompt-tightness signal, not a carry cost for longs. Product inventories corroborate: gasoline is -6.3% and distillate -12.0% versus the 5-year same-week average, and the 3:2:1 crack sits at the 96th percentile of one year. Managed-money net length is only 2.84% of open interest, a 14.63 three-year percentile — the rally is not crowded, leaving room for length to rebuild. Implied vol (OVX 48.77) is 15.3 points above RV20 of 33.5%, so options pay up for event risk; we express the view in futures, not premium. Asia trade on 2026-10-15 at 06:50 was 95.02 (-0.07% vs settle), a pause inside the prior range, not a reversal. The 20-day change of -2.48% and the -2.51% seasonal mean argue for sizing discipline, not against the call. Upside targets are 97.06 (R2) then 98.01 (20-day high); a daily close below 92.19 invalidates.