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データ基準日: 2026-10-14 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Long: 20D channel floor holding, 4095 invalidation | 2026-10-15

Bullish COMEX December gold (GCZ26). Gold settled at 4107.9 on 2026-10-14, down 1.66% on the session, but the pullback stalled at 4095 — just 3.8 points above the 20-day channel low of 4091.2 — and early Asian trade on 2026-10-15 has recovered to 4129.97 (+0.54% vs settle, as of 07:00). Three reasons for the long: first, price sits at the 5th percentile of the 20-day range with the 20-day moving average at 4091.2 directly beneath, a confluence that has absorbed selling so far; second, managed-money net length has fallen for four straight CFTC weeks, from 133,116 contracts on 2026-09-15 to 110,987 on 2026-10-06, a cumulative -16.6% unwind that clears room for re-accumulation even though crowding remains elevated at the 91st percentile; third, realized volatility of 17.4% sits well below implied (GVZ 22.09, IV-RV +4.7 vol points), so optionality is cheap for a re-acceleration. Physical flows are supportive: GLD holdings rose 0.65% over 20 sessions to 33,893,188 oz as of 2026-10-13, while COMEX registered stock is thin at 15.05 Moz as of 2026-10-12. The call is invalidated by a daily close below 4095 — the 2026-10-14 session low — which would expose the 4091.2 channel floor and then the 3901.3 52-week low. Tonight's US PPI, core PPI and retail sales (BJT 20:30) and Fed Chairman Warsh's remarks (BJT 10-16 11:30) are the near-term catalysts; a soft inflation print would confirm the bounce toward pivot P 4190.
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