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データ基準日: 2026-10-14 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Long COMEX December HGZ26; 6.6607 Pivot S2 Is the Line | 2026-10-15

We are long COMEX December copper (HGZ26) with the invalidation at a daily close below 6.6607, the S2 pivot [settle 2026-10-14]. The call rests on three pillars. First, price action: the 10-14 settle of 6.6605 sits mid-20-day channel (6.4395–6.9285, position 45.2%) after a +2.33% 20-day gain, and the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05–10-09) closed at 6.692, up 2.18% w/w — the pullback is a retracement inside an uptrend, not a trend break. Second, fundamentals: LME warehouse stock fell 1,625 MT d/d to 229,650 MT as of 2026-10-13 and is down 19,575 MT over 20 reports, while COMEX registered rose only 1,100 short ton to 471,300 as of 2026-10-12; the SHFE warrant jump of 14,050 MT to 23,457 MT as of 2026-10-14 is the one bearish datapoint. Third, positioning is not crowded: managed-money netPct fell to 20.11% (crowding 61.66 percentile) as of 2026-10-06, leaving room to add. Cross-asset confirmation is strong: the copper/gold ratio at 1.62 sits at the 100th 1-year percentile [2026-10-14]. In early Asian trade on 2026-10-15 (07:00), HG=F printed 6.6168, down 0.66% vs settle and below S2 — the invalidation is live intraday but not yet a daily close. ATR14 is 0.1226 (1.84% of price, full daily range), so a stop near 6.54 is roughly one ATR below S2; upside targets are R1 6.7683 then R2 6.8107. Today's US PPI, core retail sales and the Fed Chairman's 23:30 BJT speech are the near-term catalysts; China IP, FAI and GDP on 10-19/20 decide the follow-through.