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データ基準日: 2026-10-14 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Long NGF27 — 20D uptrend intact, S1 3.1507 holds | 2026-10-15

We are LONG natural gas (NGF27.NYM, the NYMEX contract mapped from NG=F after the 2026-10-13 roll) with invalidation on a daily close below the S1 pivot 3.1507. The call rests on three pillars. First, structure: the prior session settled at 3.198 [settle 10-14], up 6.14% over 20 sessions, with the last completed week (2026-10-05–10-09) up 6.1% w/w and the current week still unfinished. Second, positioning: managed money is net short 144,537 contracts as of 2026-10-06, a 3-year crowding percentile of only 39.96, leaving room for shorts to cover into seasonal strength. Third, seasonality: the next 20 sessions have averaged +5.56% (median +7.24%, up 9 of 15 years). The tape is two-sided — 1D -2.59% (settle) and ATR14 of 0.1411, a full 4.41% daily range — so the long is sized for volatility, not conviction in a straight line. The curve is in steep contango (M1-M2 -0.319, -8.86%), a heavy roll cost for longs that argues for expressing the view in the front execution contract rather than holding a passive long-dated position. A daily close below 3.1507 invalidates the uptrend and exposes S2 at 3.0183; a break above R1 3.3727 targets R2 3.4623.