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データ基準日: 2026-10-14 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

RSS3=F Deep Dive | LONG — 20D uptrend intact, 451.03 invalidation | 2026-10-15

We are LONG RSS3=F with invalidation on a daily close below 451.03 (pivot S2). The prior session settled at 453 [settle 10-14], down 1.07% (settle) but still up 6.46% over 20 sessions and flat over 5 days, holding 64.4% of the 425.5–468.2 20-day channel. The 10-13 print of 468.2 is the 20-day and 52-week high; the 10-14 pullback stalled above S1 454.47 intraday before settling at 453, keeping the ladder constructive. ATR14 is 7.77 (1.72% of price, full daily range) and RV20 is 16.7%, so a move beyond a pivot is meaningful rather than noise. Fundamentals are thin for this contract: no term-structure, inventory, rig, ETF or margin series are available, so the call rests on price structure and cross-asset context. Copper/gold at 1.62 sits at the 100th 1-year percentile, a pro-growth tape consistent with holding long risk in industrial commodities; oil/gold at 0.0231 is at the 97th 1-year percentile. A break above 461.33 (pivot P) targets 471.63 (R2), roughly 1.1 ATR beyond the pivot; a daily close below 451.03 (S2) invalidates the bullish structure and targets 443.26, about one ATR below S2. No Asia print was available for this issue.