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データ基準日: 2026-10-14 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) Deep Analysis Report | Bearish: Pressured at Lower End of 20-Day Range | 2026-10-15

Directional Conclusion: Bearish. Rebar RB2701 [10-14 settlement] at 3,076 CNY/ton, daily change vs. previous settlement -0.39%, 5-day -1.25%, 20-day -3.27%. Price sits at the 11.3% percentile of the 20-day range of 3,060–3,175, near the lower bound. Technicals: ATR14 at 28.14 (0.92%), RV20 only 9.7%, Pivot P at 3,087, R1 at 3,101, S1 at 3,075; settlement price has broken below Pivot P. Capital Flow: Top 20 seats net long 18,335 lots, daily decrease of 14,434 lots; main nominal position 52.34 billion CNY, daily decrease of 234 million CNY, showing declining volume with falling prices and long liquidation. Drivers: Fixed asset investment, industrial production, real estate investment data concentrated for release on 10-19; GDP and LPR (1-year prior 3%, 5-year prior 3.5%) on 10-20 are key variables. Invalidation Condition: Daily close above 3,101 (R1).