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データ基準日: 2026-10-14 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Short: Bearish Continuation Below 483 Pivot | 2026-10-15

Bearish. Corn (ZC=F, executing as CBOT December ZCZ26) settled at 480.75 [settle 10-14], down 0.41% on the day, with the 5-day change at -4.23% and the 20-day change at -10.01% (settle-based), leaving price in the bottom 14.1% of its 20-day channel (470.25-544.
5). The sell-off accelerated on 10-09, when the contract gapped from a 504.75 high to a 470.25 low and settled at 479.75, and it has failed to reclaim the 483 classic pivot since. Three reasons to stay short: the trend is decisively negative across both windows; the market sits in a 2.77% contango with a -11.08% roll yield, so longs pay a heavy carry cost while the curve signals ample nearby supply; and realized volatility of 25.9% with ATR14 at 12.39 (2.58% of price) keeps downside gaps efficient. Seasonality is a mild offset (next-20-session mean +0.26%, but median -1.85%, up only 5 of 15 years). Invalidation: a daily close above 488.25 (the 10-13 high) would neutralize the short and reopen 493.25 (R2). Downside, a break below the 470.25 20-day low targets 460. No Asia print was available for this issue, so all live observations are US-session intraday as of 10-15.