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データ基準日: 2026-10-14 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=X26) Deep Dive | Long at 20-day low; invalidation 1263.08 | 2026-10-15

We are long CBOT Soybeans (ZSX26) at the 1277.25 settle [10-14], with invalidation on a daily close below pivot S2 at 1263.08. Three reasons: first, price sits at 12.1% of the 20-day channel (1269.75–1331.75) after a -3.28% 20-day slide, with the 10-09 low of 1269.75 already tested and held — a defined-risk entry at the bottom of the range. Second, the US soybean crush margin is 2.7832 USD/bu (2026-10-12), 80.16% of its 1-year range and up from 2.5148 twenty sessions earlier, with the related CRUSH_SOY spread at 2.6351 USD/bu (P1Y 69.84%, P3Y 89.95%) — processor demand is absorbing supply at elevated margins. Third, the term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -16.25, -1.25%, roll yield -7.5%), which is a carry cost for longs but signals no prompt tightness to fight. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is supportive: mean +1.62%, median +1.26%, up 9 of 15 years. The 10-14 session printed H 1293.5 / L 1274.25 / C 1277.25, a second consecutive lower close; intraday 10-15 prints are not yet available. ATR14 is 22.07 (1.73% of price), so a stop below 1263.08 is roughly 0.6 ATR from the settle and the R1 target 1295.92 is about 0.85 ATR above. The call is invalidated by a daily close below 1263.08 or a crush-margin collapse below the 2.5148 level seen 20 sessions ago.