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データ基準日: 2026-10-14 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Wheat (ZW=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20D -7.87%, S1 663 pivot defense fails | 2026-10-15

Bearish on CBOT December wheat (ZWZ26): the 20-day downtrend (-7.87% settle) remains intact and the 2026-10-14 settle of 673.25 sits only 1.75 points above pivot P 672, with the 20-day channel position at 15.9% confirming persistent distribution. Three reasons: (1) price has failed to reclaim the 10-08 high of 691.75 across five sessions, leaving lower highs into the 661.5 20-day low; (2) the term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -14, -2.05%) with a roll yield of -8.2%, a persistent carry drag on longs; (3) next-20-session seasonality is negative (median -1%, up only 6 of 15 years). Invalidation: a daily close above 687.25 (R2) would break the lower-high sequence and force a reassessment. Downside, a daily close below S1 663 opens S2 656.75. RV20 at 21.2% is subdued, so optionality is not pricing a reversal. No Asia print was captured for this issue; report-date observations are intraday only.