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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-13 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | LONG: Backwardation Tightness, 88% 20D Range | 2026-10-15

We are LONG Brent (ICE Brent, BZZ26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily close below the S1 pivot 103.57. The prior session settled at 105.69 [settle 10-13], up 5.08% over five sessions and 2.3% over twenty, placing price at the 88th percentile of its 20-day channel (93.68–107.
3) and within 1.5% of the 52-week high at 107.
3. The curve is in backwardation at M1-M2 2.78 (2.7%) with a 32.42% roll yield, a structure that rewards longs and signals prompt tightness. Product inventories are the tightest leg: gasoline 6.3% and distillate 12.0% below their 5-year same-week averages as of 2026-10-02, while crude itself sits only 0.2% above average, and the 3:2:1 crack at 65.16 USD/bbl [2026-10-14] keeps refiners pulling barrels at 92.7% utilization. Realized volatility is compressed at RV20 34% with OVX at 48.77, so options pay up for event risk into today's US PPI and retail sales and tomorrow's Fed Chairman Warsh speech. Seasonality is a headwind (next-20-session mean -2.53%), which is why the stop sits below the pivot rather than inside the noise. A daily close below 103.57 flips the call; above 107.3 opens 108.52 then 110.38.