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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-14 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Breaks Below 20-Day Range Lower Bound on Rising Open Interest | 2026-10-15

Bearish. Iron ore I2701 [10-14 settlement] 674.5 yuan/ton, down 0.81%, 5-day -4.06%, 20-day -9.47%, closing at the 4.2th percentile of the 20-day range 671–742; the 10-14 night session probed further down to 669.5 and closed the night session at 671. On drivers, main-force open interest +12,466 lots, notional open interest +0.84 billion yuan to 43.33 billion yuan, a decline on rising open interest with shorts taking the initiative; top-20 seats net short 38,042 lots, up 7,540 lots on the day, short concentration rising. SGX FEF=F [10-14 settlement] 90.25 USD, 20-day -6.23%, at the 0.7th percentile of the 20-day range, both domestic and external markets weak. China tax-adjusted implied premium +7.3% (5 days ago +7.94%); the Chinese market is relatively expensive versus the international market but the premium is converging. Invalidation conditions: daily close back above pivot P 679 and break of R1 684 (about 1 ATR above), or SGX holding firmly above 90.983; on the downside watch S1 672 and the 20-day low 671.