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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-14 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

Shanghai Gold (AU2612) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish Bias: Pressure at Lower Edge of 20-Day Channel | 2026-10-15

Directional conclusion: bearish bias. Shanghai Gold AU2612 [10-14 settlement] 900.28 yuan/gram, intraday -0.68% vs. previous settlement, -1.53% over 5 days, -5.93% over 20 days; 20-day channel 889.82–959.6, position only 9.8%; [10-14 night session] closed at 885.08, having broken below the lower edge of the channel. On drivers, DXY [10-14] 102.55 rose 0.34%, 10Y U.S. Treasury 5.19%, raising carrying costs; GVZ implied volatility 22.09 sits at the 9th percentile over one year, with options not fully pricing risk. On inventories, SHFE warrants 116,028 kg unchanged, COMEX registered 15.05Moz slightly lower, GLD +0.65% over 20 days; no physical squeeze evident. On structure, COT managed money net longs reduced for four consecutive weeks, China market top-20 net longs 161,235 lots down 4,457 lots on the day, indicating active long exit. Invalidation condition: daily close back above pivot P 904.57 and break above R1 911.
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