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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-14 · 결제 기준: 거래소 결제가(베이징 시간 15:00 종가, 전일 결제 대비)

SHFE Copper (CU2611) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bullish Bias: Inventory Destocking Coupled with Strengthening International and China Market Premiums | 2026-10-15

Directional conclusion: SHFE Copper CU2611 is biased bullish. The core logic lies in continued LME inventory destocking, strengthening international and China market price ratios, and the capital structure of rising open interest alongside price gains in the main contract. [10-14 settlement] SHFE Copper reported at 111010 yuan/ton, up 0.16%, up 1.28% over 5 days, up 0.42% over 20 days, at the 78th percentile of the 20-day channel of 106650-112330, approaching the upper band. LME inventory [10-13] fell to 229650 tons, down a cumulative 19575 tons over the last 20 periods; China's premium over LME after tax adjustment rose to +1.71% [10-14], with the import window tending to open. Main contract nominal open interest was 109.28 billion yuan, up 5.85 billion yuan on the day, showing active long-position building. Risk points include an increase of 1100 short tons in COMEX registered warrants [10-12] and an overnight pullback in international markets, with HG=F at 6.6168 USD/lb in the Asian early session [10-15 07:00], down 0.66%. Direction invalidation condition: daily close below 110513.33 (S1) and LME inventory turning to consecutive accumulation.