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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-14 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Short: 20-day low 58.73 broken, 55.56 in play | 2026-10-15

Bearish: the 2026-10-14 settle of 55.877 broke decisively below the prior 20-day low of 58.73, and we are short COMEX December silver (SIZ26.CMX) with invalidation on a daily close back above pivot P at 59.883. The breakdown was violent — 6.13% on the session and 7.33% over five sessions — leaving price at the 3rd percentile of its 20-day range (55.56–68.105) and 12.05% below the 20-day high. Realized volatility is already elevated at 35.1% (RV20) with ATR14 at 2.152, so the move carries genuine trend risk rather than thin-market noise. Managed-money net length has been cut from 13,309 to 7,528 contracts over three weeks, but at the 40th crowding percentile positioning is not yet washed out, leaving room for further liquidation. The gold/silver ratio at 73.52 sits in the 87th one-year percentile, confirming silver is lagging gold badly. Physically, COMEX registered stocks rose 0.57% to 103.35 Moz as of 2026-10-12 while SHFE warrants fell for a third straight session to 1,460,963 kg, a mixed tape that offers no supply-side floor. Tonight's US PPI and retail sales and Warsh's remarks are the near-term catalysts; a close above 59.883 negates the short.