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Data as of: 2026-10-14 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Iron Ore (I2701) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Added Positions Break Below 20-Day Range Floor | 2026-10-15

Bearish. Iron ore I2701 [10-14 settlement] 674.5 yuan/ton, down 0.81%, 5-day -4.06%, 20-day -9.47%, closing at the 4.2th percentile of the 20-day range 671–742, with the 10-14 night session probing further down to 669.5 and closing the night session at 671. On drivers, main-force positions +12,466 lots, notional positions +840 million yuan to 4.333 billion yuan, a decline on added positions with shorts taking the initiative; top-20 seats net short 38,042 lots, up 7,540 lots on the day, short concentration rising. SGX FEF=F [10-14 settlement] 90.25 USD, 20-day -6.23%, at the 0.7th percentile of the 20-day range, both domestic and external markets weak. China tax-adjusted implied premium +7.3% (5 days ago +7.94%), the Chinese market relatively expensive versus the international market but the premium narrowing. Invalidation conditions: daily close back above pivot P 679 and break of R1 684 (about 1 ATR above), or SGX holding firmly above 90.983; on the downside watch S1 672 and the 20-day low 671.