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Data as of: 2026-10-14 · Settlement: Exchange settlement (15:00 Beijing close, vs prior settlement)

Shanghai Gold (AU2612) In-Depth Report | Bearish Bias: Pressure at Lower Edge of 20-Day Channel | 2026-10-15

Directional conclusion: bearish. Shanghai Gold AU2612 [10-14 settlement] 900.28 yuan/g, intraday -0.68% vs prior settlement, -1.53% over 5 days, -5.93% over 20 days; 20-day channel 889.82–959.6, position only 9.8%; [10-14 night session] closed at 885.08, already breaking below the channel floor. Drivers: DXY [10-14] 102.55 up 0.34%, 10Y UST 5.19%, carrying costs rising; GVZ implied volatility 22.09 at 9th percentile over one year, options not fully pricing risk. On inventory, SHFE warrants 116,028 kg unchanged, COMEX registered 15.05Moz slightly lower, GLD +0.65% over 20 days, no physical squeeze evident. In structure, COT managed-money net longs reduced for four consecutive weeks, China market top-20 net longs 161,235 lots down 4,457 lots on the day, longs exiting actively. Invalidation: daily close back above pivot P 904.57 and break of R1 911.
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