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データ基準日: 2026-10-14 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | LONG: Backwardation and Draws, Pivot 105.59 Key | 2026-10-16

We are LONG Brent Crude (BZ=F, ICE Brent December contract BZZ26.NYM), with the bias invalidated by a daily close below the S1 pivot 104.46 (settle basis). The call rests on three pillars: a steep prompt backwardation (M1-M2 2.66, 2.57%, roll yield 30.87%) that signals physical tightness; a fourth consecutive week of crude inventory draws (EIA stocks 415,577 kb as of 2026-10-09, -8,557 kb w/w, -2.5% vs the 5-year same-week average) alongside distillate at -11.7% vs the 5-year average; and price momentum, with the 10-14 settle 106.06 up 5.85% over 5D and 5.26% over 20D, sitting at the 91st percentile of the 20-day range (93.68-107.
3). The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 104.72, +2.42% w/w, after a 97.08 low. In early Asian trade on 2026-10-16 (as of 06:50), Brent last printed 105.56, -0.47% vs settle, having traded 103.38-106.39 - a dip that held above S1 and keeps the structure intact. ATR14 is 4.1 (3.87% of price, full daily range), so a break of R1 106.83 opens R2 107.96, roughly 0.46 ATR beyond. Seasonality is a headwind (next-20-session mean -3.22%, up only 5 of 15 years), and OVX at 48.62 (41st percentile) shows options are not paying up for event risk, so position sizing should respect the wide daily range. We add on holds above 105.59 (pivot P) and exit on a daily close below 104.46.