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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | LONG: backwardation and product tightness drive the rally | 2026-10-16

We are LONG WTI crude (CLZ26.NYM) with invalidation on a daily settle below 94.02 (pivot S1). The prior session settled at 97.97 [settle 10-15], up 3.03% on the day, +7.08% over five sessions and +0.76% over twenty, with the settle sitting at the 97th percentile of the 20-day range (86.86–98.32). The market is in backwardation (M1-M2 1.19, 1.27%, roll yield 15.21%), EIA crude stocks are 2.5% below the 5-year same-week average and distillates 11.7% below, and the 3:2:1 crack sits at the 96th percentile of one year — all consistent with prompt tightness. Managed-money net length has fallen for four consecutive weeks to 2.84% of open interest (15th 3-year percentile), so the rally is not yet a crowded trade. Implied volatility (OVX 48.62) is 13.4 points above RV20 (35.2%), meaning options are paying up for event risk. In early Asian trade on 2026-10-16 at 06:50 the contract was 96.13, down 1.88% versus settle — a pullback inside the 10-15 bar's 93.58–98.32 range, not a trend break. A daily settle below 94.02 would negate the call; above that, the 20-day high at 98.32 is the immediate reference.