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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

CZCE.AP(AP2701) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish bias: breaks below 20-day low of 6240 on rising open interest | 2026-10-16

Bearish bias. Apple AP2701 [10-15 settlement] 6204, close 6121, single-day drop of 4.75%, 5-day -11.26%, 20-day -18.88%, has broken below the prior 20-day low of 6240, 20-day range position only 0.5%, approaching S1 6073.33. Drivers stem from expectations of concentrated new-crop supply on the supply side and weakening demand; [10-16] intraday further dipped to 5992, settlement 6096, downtrend continuing. Main open interest 161037 lots (-9066), at the 99th percentile over the past year, notional open interest 9.86 billion yuan, down 555 million yuan on the day, top-20 seats net short 5919 lots. Invalidation condition: daily close back above 6408.67 (pivot P) accompanied by rising open interest; below, watch 6073.33 ([10-15 settlement]).