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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Analysis Report | Bearish: 20-day drop of 9% nearing lower band of channel | 2026-10-16

Directional conclusion: bearish. Iron ore I2701 [10-15 settlement] at 672 yuan/ton, down 1.61% over 5 days and 9.01% over 20 days; closing price 671.5 sits at the 6.6th percentile of the 20-day channel of 667–735, near the lower band; night session 10-15 21:05–23:00 rebounded to 673, only +0.15% versus settlement, limited strength. On drivers, the 20-day decline of 9.01% came with RV20 of only 14.2% and ATR14 of 10.79 (1.61%), indicating a low-volatility gradual decline rather than panic selling; SGX FEF=F [10-15 settlement] at 90.1 USD, down 6.73% over 20 days, position at 5.3%, with international and Chinese markets weakening in tandem. On structure, top 20 seats [10-15] net short 38,498 lots, widening by 456 lots versus the prior day; main nominal open interest 43.01 billion yuan, down 1.62 billion yuan on the day, a decline on falling open interest with longs exiting. Invalidation condition: daily close breaks above pivot R1 679.33 and holds above the 20-day channel midline of 701.