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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

DCE Eggs Main Continuous (DCE.JD) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish: Accelerated decline after breaking previous low 3410 | 2026-10-16

Direction conclusion: Bearish. Eggs main continuous (DCE.JD, active contract JD2612) [10-15 settlement] 3365, close 3336, single-day drop 3.97%, 5-day -10.59%, 20-day -12.78%. The trigger condition this period is the closing price breaking below the previous 20-day low of 3410, with the 20-day range position at only 8.3%, sitting below the lower edge of the recent 20-day 3284–3908 channel. On drivers, [10-15 settlement] main open interest 292073 lots (-4774), notional open interest 9.74 billion yuan (daily change -159 million yuan), showing a decline on reduced positions with longs exiting; ATR14 88.5 (2.65%), RV20 25.8%, volatility expanding in line with the downside. Technically, pivot P 3470.67, S1 3365.33; [10-15 close] already just below S1. Operationally, look to test shorts on rebounds into the 3410–3450 zone; a break below 3284 opens 3195; the invalidation condition is a daily close back above 3410 (previous 20-day low).