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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

FEF=F Deep Dive | Short: 90 settle breaks 20-day low 90.2 | 2026-10-16

We are short FEF=F: the 2026-10-15 settle of 90 broke below the prior 20-day low of 90.2, confirming a fifth consecutive lower daily close and a 20-day decline of 6.73% (settle). The market sits at the 5th percentile of its 20-day range and at the bottom of its 52-week band (89.7–111.85), with ATR14 at 0.7 (0.78% of price) and RV20 at 7.6%, so the downtrend is orderly rather than capitulatory. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 91.25, down 0.38% w/w, and the unfinished current week is lower still at 90.1 intraday — no weekly-close conclusion is drawn from it. Classic pivots from the 2026-10-14 H/L/C put P at 90.367, R1 90.533, S1 90.083, R2 90.817 and S2 89.917; the settle is below P and S1, keeping the ladder bearish. The invalidation is a daily close back above 91.25, the 2026-10-09 close and the high of the last completed week; below that, a break of 89.7 targets 89. No Asia print was captured for this issue, so all report-date observations are intraday as of the snapshot time. The bias is short while price holds under 90.367, with a reversal requiring a daily close above 91.25.