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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | LONG COMEX Dec-26: 20D low 6.509 is the line | 2026-10-16

We are LONG COMEX December copper (HGZ26), with the trade invalidated on a daily settle below the 20-day low of 6.509 [settle 2026-10-15]. The call rests on three pillars. First, price is at the bottom of its 20-day channel — the 6.5565 settle sits at the 11.3% position of the 6.509–6.9285 range — while the last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed up 2.18% at 6.692, so the current pullback is a retracement inside an uptrend, not a confirmed reversal. Second, physical balances are tightening where it matters: LME warehouse stock fell 1,650 MT d/d to 228,000 MT as of 2026-10-14 and is down 26,150 MT over 20 sessions, and COMEX registered stock edged down 100 short tons to 471,200 as of 2026-10-13; the SHFE warrant jump of 48.92% to 34,933 MT as of 2026-10-15 is a small, single-exchange offset. Third, positioning has already cleaned up: managed-money net length fell 16,924 contracts in the week to 2026-10-06 to 61,134, with netPct down to 20.11% and crowding at the 62nd percentile, so the long side is no longer extended. The copper/gold ratio at 1.57 (92.46% 1Y percentile) confirms pro-growth leadership. Near-term risk is event-driven: China IP, retail sales, FAI and GDP prints on 2026-10-19/20 and the 1-y/5-y LPR decision can move the metal through the 0.127 ATR14. We add on holds above S1 6.5767 and exit on a settle under 6.509.