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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Shanghai Gold (AU2612) In-Depth Analysis Report | Slightly Bullish: Night Session Reclaims Pivot, Premium Inversion Narrows | 2026-10-16

Directional conclusion: slightly bullish. Shanghai Gold 2612 [10-15 settlement] 889.74 yuan/gram, down 0.74% intraday, but closed the night session at 898.34, +0.97% versus settlement, back at the lower edge below pivot P 899.64; internationally, COMEX December gold GCZ26 [10-15 settlement] 4170.1 USD/ounce, +1.51%, with the Asian early session at 4185.28 continuing to strengthen, moving in the same direction as the Chinese market. After a 20-day -6.16%, price sits at the 15.1% percentile of the 20-day channel, with downside constrained by the 20-day low at 881.82; GVZ implied volatility at 22.78 is at the 1-year 13% percentile, IV-RV +4.3 points, options are paying for event risk but at a modest absolute level. COMEX registered warrants 14.88 Moz, down 1.13% on the day, GLD +0.65% over 20 days, inventories and ETFs show no selling pressure. China tax-adjusted premium -0.37%, the Chinese market is relatively cheaper versus the international market. Invalidation conditions: daily close below 881.82 (20-day low), or GCZ26 below 4091.2 after the Warsh speech.