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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

SHFE Copper (CU2611) In-depth Analysis | Bearish: Inventory Surge Combined with Expanding Net Shorts | 2026-10-16

Directional conclusion: Bearish. SHFE Copper CU2611 [10-15 settlement] 109750 yuan/ton, day session close 108940 (-1.86% vs. previous settlement), 5-day -1.2%, 20-day -1.93%; price has broken below pivot P 111063.33 and is approaching S1 110626.67, with the 20-day channel position at only 40.3%. On the drivers, SHFE warrants [10-15] rose +11476 tons in a single day to 34933 tons (+48.92%), and the top-20 seats' net shorts of 23694 lots expanded by 4918 lots from the previous day; main contract nominal open interest fell 4.23 billion yuan in a day, indicating a decline on falling open interest (longs exiting). Internationally, COMEX managed money net longs have fallen for two consecutive weeks, while CTA crowding remains at a high of 98. The international vs. China premium has converged from +1.82% to +0.72%. Invalidation condition: daily close back above pivot P 111063.33 and a break above R1 111516.67.