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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Rebar (RB2701) In-depth Analysis Report | Bearish bias: rising open interest drives price down to test 20-day low | 2026-10-16

Directional conclusion: bearish bias. Rebar RB2701 settled at 3066 yuan/ton on [10-15 settlement], closed intraday at 3071 (-0.16% vs prior settlement), with a cumulative 20-day change of -3.09%; price has fallen to the 15.8th percentile of the 20-day channel 3053–3167, approaching the lower band. On drivers, the main contract's open interest rose by 29,013 lots on [10-15], lifting notional open interest to 53.20 billion yuan (daily change +891 million yuan) while price fell, indicating active short positioning; top-20 seats held a net long of 15,231 lots, narrowing by 3,104 lots from the prior day, as the long defense line retreated. Technically, the [10-15 settlement] of 3066 sits below pivot P 3078, only 1 point from S1 3065—a gap of less than 0.5×ATR14 (28.86)—so S1 is not treated as a trading level; a decisive break below the 20-day low of 3053 targets 3024 by ATR-based measurement. A dense macro window lies ahead: 10-19 fixed-asset investment, industrial value-added, and retail sales; 10-20 GDP and 1-year/5-year LPR (prior 3%/3.5%); weaker-than-expected data would reinforce the negative feedback loop. Invalidation conditions: daily close back above pivot P 3078 and a further break above R1 3086 (a gap of about 0.7×ATR), or better-than-expected macro data on 10-19.