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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Silver (SI=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20D -13.5%, S1 54.426 Holds Key | 2026-10-16

Bearish on silver: the COMEX December silver (SIZ26) trend is down, positioning is unwinding, and the 20-day channel is bearish. First, the settle of 57.156 [settle 10-15] sits 13.52% below its 20-day level and at only the 13th percentile of the 55.56–68.1 20-day range, with the 5-day change at -3.82% (settle). Second, managed-money net length fell from 13,309 to 7,528 contracts over the four weeks to 2026-10-06, a 43% cut, while netPct dropped to 7.16% — active liquidation, not a contrarian washout at a 39.56 crowding percentile. Third, the gold/silver ratio at 72.96 [2026-10-15] is at the 87th 1-year percentile, confirming silver's persistent underperformance. Physical flows are mildly supportive but insufficient: SHFE warrants fell 3.13% d/d to 1,415,307 kg [2026-10-15] and COMEX registered slipped 0.25% to 103.09 Moz [2026-10-13], while SLV holdings are flat at 493.4 Moz. In early Asian trade 2026-10-16 07:00, SI=F last printed 57.418 (+0.46% vs settle, Asia), inside the pivot band. Invalidation: a daily close above R1 58.461 (settle basis) would neutralize the bearish call; a break below S1 54.426 targets S2 52.976.