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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Corn (ZC=F) Deep Dive | Bearish: 20D at -9.9%, S1 477.83 is the line | 2026-10-16

We are bearish on corn (ZC=F, executed as CBOT December ZCZ26) with invalidation on a daily close back above the 480.92 pivot. The prior session settled at 478 [settle 10-15], down 0.57% on the day, with the 5-day change at -4.45% and the 20-day change at -9.9% (settle), leaving price in the bottom decile of the 20-day channel at 10.4% of the 470.25-544.5 range. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 479.75, down 3.62% w/w, after a 509.75 high and a 470.25 low; the current week is unfinished and offers no weekly-close conclusion. ATR14 is 11.75 (2.46% of price, full daily range) and RV20 is 25.9%, so realized movement is elevated relative to the seasonal norm. The term structure is in contango at M1-M2 -13.5 (-2.73%) with a roll yield of -10.93%, a persistent drag on long exposure. Seasonality for the next 20 sessions is negative (median -2.33%, up only 5 of 15 years). Support sits at S1 477.83 and S2 474.92; resistance at R1 483.83 and R2 486.92. The trade is short with a stop above the pivot, targeting a break of S2 toward the 20-day low at 470.25.