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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Soybeans (ZS=X26) Deep Dive | Short: 1263 Settle Breaks 1269.75 20-Day Low | 2026-10-16

Bearish. CBOT soybean January contract ZSX26 (ZS=F continuous) settled at 1263 on 2026-10-15, a 1.12% one-day decline that broke below the prior 20-day low of 1269.75 and left price at the 1st percentile of the 20-day channel (1262.25–1331.
5). The 5-day move is -1.9% and the 20-day move is -4.3% (settle), a persistent grind lower rather than a single shock. ATR14 is 21.5 (1.7% of price, full daily range) with RV20 at the 15th percentile, so realized volatility is compressed even as the trend deteriorates; a break of the 1262.25 floor opens 1240.75. The US crush margin at 2.6231 USD/bu (2026-10-14) sits in the 68th 1-year and 89th 3-year percentile, keeping processor demand firm but failing to arrest the slide. The term structure is in contango (M1-M2 -14.75, -1.14%, roll yield -6.85%), a carry headwind for longs. Seasonality (next 20 sessions, 15 years) is mildly supportive at a +1.69% mean, but 9-of-15 up years is a weak edge against a fresh channel break. Invalidation: a daily close back above pivot P 1281.67.