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데이터 기준일: 2026-10-15 · 결제 기준: 거래소 최종 일일 결제가

Natural Gas (NG=F) Deep Dive | Long: Seasonal Tailwind, Shorts Covering, 3.1253 Invalidation | 2026-10-16

We are LONG natural gas (NGF27.NYM, continuous NG=F) with invalidation on a daily close below the S1 pivot 3.1253. The prior session settled at 3.236 [settle 10-15], up 1.19% on the day, with the 20-day change at +6.48% and the 5-day at +2.15% (settle). Price sits at the 67.1% percentile of the 20-day channel 2.912–3.395, holding above the classic pivot P 3.2297 and pressing R1 3.3023. Managed-money shorts have extended for three straight weeks — net -144,537 contracts as of 2026-10-06 — leaving a crowded short base that can fuel a squeeze on any weather-driven bid. Seasonality over the next 20 sessions is constructive: mean +8.2%, median +4.77%, up 10 of 15 years. The curve is in deep contango (M1-M2 -0.361, -10.14%), a heavy roll cost for longs that argues for sizing discipline rather than avoidance. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 3.22, +6.1% w/w; the current week is unfinished and no weekly-close conclusion is drawn. ATR14 is 0.1351 (4.17% of price, full daily range), so a move through R1 targets R2 3.4067; a daily close below 3.1253 exposes S2 3.0527 and flips the call.