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データ基準日: 2026-10-15 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Brent Crude (BZ=F) Deep Dive | LONG: Asia breakout, backwardated, drawdown support | 2026-10-17

Brent is a LONG: ICE Brent December (BZZ26) settled at 105.92 on 10-15 and early Asia on 10-17 at 05:00 printed 109.69, +3.56% versus that settle, clearing the 107.3 20-day high and the 107.05 R1 pivot. Three reasons: (1) the curve is in backwardation, M1-M2 at 2.75 (2.67%) with a 31.99% roll yield, signalling prompt tightness; (2) EIA crude stocks at 415,577 kb (10-09) sit 2.5% below the 5-year same-week average after an 8,557 kb weekly draw, with distillates 11.7% below average; (3) realized vol is only 32.3% against OVX at 49.13, so the market is paying for upside event risk while the 3:2:1 crack at 57.77 USD/bbl (10-16) keeps refinery pull strong at 93.5% utilization. Invalidation: a daily close back below the 105.15 S1 pivot, which would negate the Asia breakout and re-expose the 104.24 S2. Seasonality is a headwind (next-20-session mean -2.71%), so size accordingly. The last completed weekly bar (10-05 to 10-09) closed at 104.72, +2.42% w/w; the current week is unfinished and offers no weekly-close conclusion. Stops belong beyond S1, roughly one ATR (4.04) of noise away, with upside targets at 108.04 R2 and the 110 Asia high.