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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

WTI Crude (CL=F) Deep Dive | LONG: 10-16 settle broke 20-day high 98.32 | 2026-10-17

Bullish: the 2026-10-16 settle of 101.41 broke decisively above the prior 20-day high of 98.32, and the call is invalidated only by a daily close back below pivot P 96.62. Three reasons support the long: first, price action is a clean five-session stair-step from 93.74 to 101.41 (+10.41% 5D, settle), with the 10-16 bar spanning 96.85–101.9 and closing near its high, while the 20-day position reads 96.7% and the prior 20-day range was 86.86–98.32. Second, the physical balance is tightening: EIA crude stocks of 415,577 kb (2026-10-09) fell 8,557 kb w/w and sit 2.5% below the 5-year same-week average, distillates are 11.7% below, refinery utilization is 93.5%, and the curve is in backwardation (M1–M2 1.47, 1.52%, roll yield 18.28%) — prompt tightness, not a contango carry drag. Third, positioning is not crowded: managed-money netPct was 2.84% as of 2026-10-06, a 14.63 three-year percentile, so the rally is not a crowded unwind. Implied vol (OVX 49.
13) sits 12.2 vol points above RV20 of 36.9%, meaning options pay up for event risk. The 3:2:1 crack at 57.77 USD/bbl (90.48% 1Y percentile) confirms demand pull. Seasonality is a headwind (next-20-session mean -2.65%), so the stop must respect ATR14 of 4.01 (3.95% of price).