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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所決済価格（北京時間15:00終値、前回決済比）

Iron Ore (I2701) In-Depth Report | Bearish: 20-day drop of 7.94% nearing lower edge of channel | 2026-10-17

Directional conclusion: bearish. Iron ore I2701 settled at 674 yuan on [10-16 settlement], down a cumulative 7.94% over 20 days, with price at only the 9.1th percentile of the 20-day channel, approaching the lower channel edge near 667; although the night session rebounded 1.93% from the day session close to 685.5, the main contract rose on falling open interest, indicating short covering, with the top 20 seats holding a net short of 42,046 lots, up 3,548 lots from the prior day, as industrial shorts actively added. On fundamentals, early-October social inventory rose 2.7% month-on-month to 9.39 million tons, with no destocking support from demand. Technically the bearish structure is intact; after the [10-16 settlement] effectively broke below pivot P 671.83, watch S1 666.67 and the 20-day low of 667 below; if rebounds are capped by R1 676.67, the bearish bias holds. Invalidation condition: a daily close back above 686 (night session high) accompanied by rising open interest, at which point exit shorts and stand aside.