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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Gold (GC=F) Deep Dive | Bullish Bias | 2026-10-17

We are long COMEX December gold (GCZ26) with invalidation on a daily close below the 4128.1 pivot S1. The call rests on three pillars: price is holding the lower third of the 20-day channel (4091.2–4422.1) after a -5.51% 20-day drawdown that has already flushed managed-money net length from 32.48% to 28.02% of open interest over four weeks; realized volatility of 18.3% sits well below implied (GVZ 22.34, IV-RV +4.0 pts), so upside optionality is not priced; and the 20-day channel low at 4091.2 aligns with the 52-week low region (3901.
3), giving a defined risk floor. Fundamentals are mixed: COMEX registered stocks are thin at 14.82 Moz (as of 2026-10-14) and GLD holdings rose 0.35% over 20 sessions, but India's pre-Diwali ETF curbs remove a seasonal prop and the next-20-session seasonality is negative (mean -0.63%, up only 4 of 15 years). Positioning remains crowded (90.8 percentile) yet is unwinding, which historically precedes stabilization rather than continuation. Cross-asset, the copper/gold ratio at the 92.46% 1-year percentile and oil/gold at 100% confirm gold has lagged pro-growth assets, leaving room for catch-up. Key risk: a daily close below 4128.1 exposes 4086.1 (S2).