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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

Copper (HG=F) Deep Dive | Long: Inventory Drain vs. Crowded Longs | 2026-10-17

We are long COMEX December copper (HGZ26.CMX) with a bullish bias, invalidated by a daily close below the S1 pivot of 6.508. The call rests on three pillars: first, a tightening physical tape, with LME warehouse stock at 226,600 MT as of 2026-10-15, down 29,300 MT over 20 sessions, and COMEX registered stock at 470,900 short tons as of 2026-10-14, edging lower. Second, price has consolidated within a 20-day channel of 6.509–6.9285, settling at 6.5735 on 2026-10-16, just above the P pivot of 6.573, with a 15.4% channel position that leaves room to the 6.6865 R2. Third, the copper/gold ratio at 1.57 sits at the 92.46% 1-year percentile, confirming pro-growth leadership. Managed-money net length has fallen to 61,134 contracts as of 2026-10-06, a 20.11% net-to-OI share at the 61.66 crowding percentile, reducing squeeze risk. The 5-day change of -1.77% (settle) reflects a pullback from the 6.789 20-day high, not a trend break. ATR14 of 0.1217 (1.85% of price) frames the expected daily range. Key risk: a daily close below 6.508 targets S2 at 6.4595; upside requires reclaiming R1 at 6.6215. No Asia print was available for this issue.