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データ基準日: 2026-10-16 · 決済基準: 取引所最終日次決済価格

RSS3=F Deep Dive | LONG: 20D uptrend intact, 445.3 pivot holds | 2026-10-17

We are LONG RSS3=F with invalidation on a daily close below 445.3, the 2026-10-15 settle. The contract settled at 450.1 on 2026-10-16, up 1.08% on the session, and sits 4.31% higher over 20 sessions despite a 0.86% five-day pullback, holding 52.2% of the 430.3–468.2 twenty-day range. The last completed weekly bar (2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09) closed at 454, up 1% week-on-week, confirming the medium-term advance; the current week is unfinished and offers no weekly-close conclusion. Technically, price is above the 448.5 classic pivot with R1 at 451.8 and R2 at 458.3, while S1 at 442.0 and S2 at 438.7 frame downside. ATR14 is 8.21, roughly 1.82% of price, and RV20 is a subdued 18.9%, so realized risk is contained relative to the 20-day range. Fundamentals are constructive: the 20-day channel shows a higher low at 425.6 (excluding the report date) beneath a 468.2 high, and the 52-week span of 309.6–468.2 leaves price in the upper quartile. Cross-asset signals are mildly supportive, with copper/gold at a 92.46% one-year percentile and oil/gold at 100%, indicating pro-growth risk appetite. A daily close below 445.3 negates the call; a break above 451.8 targets 458.
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